Who can seal a place in the UEFA EURO 2024 round of 16? Qualifying rules, tiebreakers and what each team needs.
Arda Guler’s Turkey will be through to the round of 16, as group runners-up, if they avoid defeat against Czech Republic
The final set of UEFA EURO 2024 group games are now under way and the round of 16 is taking shape. We keep you up to date with the permutations, rules and tiebreakers.
Who’s through and who cannot make the round of 16?
Through to round of 16 as group winners: Austria, England, Germany, Portugal, Spain
Through to round of 16 as group runners-up: Denmark, France, Italy, Switzerland
Through to round of 16 as a best third-placed team: Netherlands, Slovenia
Confirmed in third place, could go through: Hungary
Cannot reach round of 16: Albania, Croatia, Poland, Scotland, Serbia
The top two in each group plus the four best third-placed teams advance to the round of 16.
With four groups now completed, Netherlands and Slovenia are confirmed to progress to the round of 16.
The team finishing third in Group E will be through to the round of 16 with four points and, in case of three points, the comparison with Hungary will start with the goal difference.
The permutations below are for information only; the official calculations will be made by UEFA after all group games finish according to articles 20 and 21 of the Regulations of the UEFA European Championship. These examples may not cover all potential situations.
Group A
Germany are through to the round of 16 as group winners.
Switzerland are through to the round of 16 as group runners-up.
Hungary have finished third but are not yet through or eliminated.
Scotland are eliminated in fourth place.
Group B
Spain are through to the round of 16 as group winners.
Italy are through to the round of 16 as group runners-up.
Croatia are eliminated in third place.
Albania are eliminated in fourth place.
Group C
England are through to the round of 16 as group winners.
Denmark are through to the round of 16 as group runners-up (finishing ahead of Slovenia on disciplinary points).
Slovenia are through to the round of 16 as a best third-placed team.
Serbia are eliminated in fourth place.
Group D
Austria are through to the round of 16 as group winners.
France are through to the round of 16 as group runners-up.
Netherlands are through to the round of 16 as a best third-placed team.
Poland are eliminated in fourth place.
Group E
26 June: Slovakia (3) vs Romania (3), Ukraine (3) vs Belgium (3)
Romania will be through to the round of 16, in the top two, if they avoid defeat by Slovakia. Romania will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose and Ukraine avoid defeat.
Belgium will be through to the round of 16, in the top two, if they avoid defeat by Ukraine. Belgium will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose and Romania avoid defeat.
Slovakia will be through to the round of 16, at least as a best third-placed team, if they avoid defeat by Romania. Slovakia will be unable to reach the round of 16 in fourth place if they lose and Belgium avoid defeat.
Ukraine will be through to the round of 16, in the top two, if they beat Belgium, or as a best third-placed team if they draw and the other game is not drawn. Ukraine will be unable to reach the round of 16 in fourth place if they lose and Slovakia avoid defeat, or if both games are drawn.
In the event that both games are drawn, the four teams will finish equal on four points. The following scenarios would then come into play:
A) If the two draws have the same scoreline, or if Belgium vs Ukraine is a draw with fewer goals than Slovakia vs Romania, the group ranking would be based on goal difference and goals scored and would be:
1) Romania
2) Belgium
3) Slovakia
4) Ukraine
B: If the two draws have different scorelines, the following scenarios are anticipated:
If Belgium vs Ukraine ends 1-1 and Slovakia vs Romania ends 0-0, or any pair of results where Belgium score exactly one more goal than Romania in their draw, Belgium and Romania would occupy the first two positions in the group but would be equal on goal difference and goals scored. In that case, as per article 20.01d of the official competition regulations, the head-to-head criteria is reapplied exclusively to those two teams, which would mean Belgium ahead of Romania as they won their direct match. Slovakia would be third and Ukraine fourth on goal difference.
In all other scenarios, Romania and Belgium would occupy the top two spots in the group, split on goals scored. Belgium will win the group if they score two (or more) goals more than Romania in their draw; Romania would win the group if they score more goals than Belgium in their draw. Slovakia would finish ahead of Ukraine in third place based on goal difference.
In all of these scenarios, the situation stipulated in article 20.02 of the competition regulations (penalty kicks in case of perfect equality) could not apply. Equally, the situations stipulated in articles 20.01g and 20.01h (disciplinary points and European Qualifiers rankings) could not apply.
Group F
26 June: Georgia (1) vs Portugal (6), Czech Republic (1) vs Turkey (3)
Portugal are through to the round of 16 as group winners.
Turkey will be through to the round of 16, as group runners-up, if they avoid defeat against Czech Republic. Turkey will finish third if they lose and Georgia do not beat Portugal. Turkey will be unable to reach the round of 16, in fourth place, if they lose and Georgia beat Portugal.
Czech Republic will be through to the round of 16, at least as a best third-placed team, if they beat Turkey. Czech Republic will be unable to go through if they do not win, even if they finish third.
Georgia will be through to the round of 16, at least as a best third-placed team, if they beat Portugal. Georgia will be unable to go through if they do not win, even if they finish third.
How teams are split when level on points
If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points on completion of the final tournament group stage, the following criteria are applied, in the order given, to determine their rankings:
a. higher number of points obtained in the matches played among the teams in question
b. superior goal difference resulting from the matches played among the teams in question
c. higher number of goals scored in the matches played among the teams in question
d. if, after having applied criteria a) to c), teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to c) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the remaining teams to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria e) to i) apply in the order given to the two or more teams still equal
e. superior goal difference in all group matches
f. higher number of goals scored in all group matches
g. lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points)
h. position in the overall European Qualifiers rankings, or if Germany, the host association team, is involved in the comparison, drawing of lots
If two teams which have the same number of points and the same number of goals scored and conceded play their last group match against each other and are still equal at the end of that match, their final rankings are determined by kicks from the penalty mark, provided that no other teams within the group have the same number of points on completion of all group matches. Should more than two teams have the same number of points, the criteria listed under Paragraph 20.01 apply.
The situation stipulated in article 20.02 of the competition regulations (penalty kicks in case of perfect equality) cannot apply to any of the groups.
How the four best third-placed teams are decided
With reference to article 21.03, the results of the third-placed teams are compared based on their three group stage matches, according to the following criteria:
a. higher number of points
b. superior goal difference
c. higher number of goals scored
d. higher number of wins
e. lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points)
f. position in the overall European Qualifiers rankings, or if Germany, the host association team, is involved in the comparison, drawing of lots
Once the four best third-placed teams were determined, article 21.05 of the regulations explains which third-placed team plays in which tie.