Who can seal a place in the UEFA EURO 2024 round of 16: Qualifying rules, tiebreakers and what each team needs.
Gianluigi Donnarumma’s Italy will be through to the round of 16 as Group B runners-up if they avoid defeat against Croatia
The second set of UEFA EURO 2024 group games are now under way, meaning the round of 16 is beginning to take shape. We keep you up to date with the permutations, rules and tiebreakers as the tournament progresses.
The top two in each group plus the four best third-placed teams advance to the round of 16.
The permutations below are for information only; the official calculations will be made by UEFA after all group games finish according to articles 20 and 21 of the Regulations of the UEFA European Championship. These examples may not cover all potential situations.
Group B
25 June 03:00 GMT+8 : Albania (1) vs Spain (6), Croatia (1) vs Italy (3)
Spain are through to the round of 16 as group winners.
Italy will be through to the round of 16 as group runners-up if they avoid defeat against Croatia. Italy will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose and Albania beat Spain.
Albania will be through to the round of 16 as group runners-up if they beat Spain and Croatia beat Italy providing Albania finish ahead of Croatia on overall goal difference or then overall goals scored, or then disciplinary points or then European Qualifiers rankings. Albania will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose, or if they draw and Croatia beat Italy.
Croatia will be through to the round of 16 as group runners-up if they beat Italy and Albania do not beat Spain (if Albania also win, Croatia and Albania will be split for second and third place by the above criteria). Croatia will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose, or if they draw and Albania avoid defeat.
Group C
26 June 03:00 AM GMT+8: England (4) vs Slovenia (2), Denmark (2) vs Serbia (1)
England will be through to the round of 16 if they avoid defeat against Slovenia or Denmark do not beat Serbia. England will win the group if they beat Slovenia or England draw and Denmark do not win. If England draw and Denmark win they will be split for first and second place on overall goal difference, then overall goals scored, then disciplinary points, then European Qualifiers rankings. England cannot finish lower than third.
Denmark will be through to the round of 16 if they beat Serbia. If Denmark and Slovenia both draw, they will be split for second and third place by the criteria described above, similarly first and second place if Denmark and Slovenia both win (or Denmark and England, if Denmark win and England draw), or third and fourth place if Denmark and Slovenia both lose. Denmark will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose and Slovenia avoid defeat.
Slovenia will be through to the round of 16 if they beat England. Slovenia will win the group if they win and Denmark do not. If Slovenia and Denmark both win, they will be split for first and second place by the criteria described above, similarly second and third place if they both draw, or third and fourth place if they both lose, or Slovenia and Serbia for third or fourth place if Slovenia lose and Serbia draw.
Serbia will be through to the round of 16 if they beat Denmark and Slovenia do not beat England (if Serbia and Slovenia win, Serbia will be third behind England on head-to-head record). If Serbia draw and Slovenia lose they will be split for third and fourth place by the criteria described above. Serbia will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose, or if they draw and Slovenia avoid defeat.
Group D
26 June 00:00 GMT+8: Netherlands (4) vs Austria (3), France (4) vs Poland (0)
Netherlands will be through to the round of 16 (in the top two) if they avoid defeat against Austria. Netherlands will win the group if they win and France do not, or if Netherlands draw and France lose. Netherlands will finish second if they draw and France win. If Netherlands and France both win or both draw, they will be split for first place on overall goal difference, then overall goals scored, then disciplinary points, then European Qualifiers rankings. Similarly if Netherlands and France both lose, they will be split for second and third place by the same criteria.
France will be through to the round of 16 (in the top two) if they avoid defeat against Poland or if Austria do not beat Netherlands. France will win the group if they win and Netherlands do not. If France and Netherlands both win or both draw they will be split for first and second place by the above criteria, similarly for second and third place if they both lose.
Austria will be through to the round of 16 (in the top two) if they beat Netherlands. Austria will win the group if they win and France do not. If Austria draw and France lose, Austria will finish third behind France on head-to-head record.
Poland are unable to reach the round of 16 and will finish fourth.
Group E
27 June 00:00 GMT+8: Slovakia (3) vs Romania (3), Ukraine (3) vs Belgium (3)
Romania will be through to the round of 16, in the top two, if they avoid defeat by Slovakia. Romania will win the group if they win and Belgium do not beat Ukraine. Romania will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose and Ukraine avoid defeat.
Belgium will be through to the round of 16, in the top two, if they avoid defeat by Ukraine. Belgium will win the group if they win and Slovakia do not beat Romania. Belgium will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose and Romania avoid defeat.
Slovakia will be through to the round of 16, in the top two, if they beat Romania. Slovakia will finish third if they draw. Slovakia will finish first if they win and Ukraine do not beat Belgium. Slovakia will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose and Belgium avoid defeat.
Ukraine will be through to the round of 16, in the top two, if they beat Belgium. Ukraine will finish first if they win and Romania do not beat Slovakia. Ukraine will finish third if they draw and the other game is not drawn. Ukraine will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose and Slovakia avoid defeat.
In the event that both games are drawn, the four teams will finish equal on four points. The following scenarios would then come into play:
A) If the two draws have the same scoreline, or if Belgium vs Ukraine is a draw with fewer goals than Slovakia vs Romania, the group ranking would be based on goal difference and goals scored and would be:
1) Romania
2) Belgium
3) Slovakia
4) Ukraine
B: If the two draws have different scorelines, the following scenarios are anticipated:
If Belgium vs Ukraine ends 1-1 and Slovakia vs Romania ends 0-0, or any pair of results where Belgium score exactly one more goal than Romania in their draw, Belgium and Romania would occupy the first two positions in the group but would be equal on goal difference and goals scored. In that case, as per article 20.01d of the official competition regulations, the head-to-head criteria is reapplied exclusively to those two teams, which would mean Belgium ahead of Romania as they won their direct match. Slovakia would be third and Ukraine fourth on goal difference.
In all other scenarios, Romania and Belgium would occupy the top two spots in the group, split on goals scored. Belgium will win the group if they score two (or more) goals more than Romania in their draw; Romania would win the group if they score more goals than Belgium in their draw. Slovakia would finish ahead of Ukraine in third place based on goal difference.
In all of these scenarios, the situation stipulated in article 20.02 of the competition regulations (penalty kicks in case of perfect equality) could not apply. Equally, the situations stipulated in articles 20.01g and 20.01h (disciplinary points and European Qualifiers rankings) could not apply.
Group F
27 June 03:00 GMT+8: Georgia (1) vs Portugal (6), Czech Republic (1) vs Turkey (3)
Portugal are through to the round of 16 as group winners.
Turkey will be through to the round of 16, as group runners-up, if they avoid defeat against Czech Republic. Turkey will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose and Georgia beat Portugal.
Czech Republic will be through to the round of 16, as group runners-up, if they beat Turkey and Georgia do not beat Portugal. If Czech Republic and Georgia both win, they will be split for second and third place on overall goal difference, then overall goals scored, then disciplinary points, then European Qualifiers rankings. Czech Republic will finish third if they draw and Georgia do not win. Czech Republic will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose.
Georgia will be through to the round of 16, as group runners-up, if they beat Portugal and Czech Republic beat Turkey, provided Georgia finish ahead of Czech Republic on the criteria described above. Georgia will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose, or if they draw and Czech Republic avoid defeat.
How teams are split when level on points
If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points on completion of the final tournament group stage, the following criteria are applied, in the order given, to determine their rankings:
a. higher number of points obtained in the matches played among the teams in question
b. superior goal difference resulting from the matches played among the teams in question
c. higher number of goals scored in the matches played among the teams in question
d. if, after having applied criteria a) to c), teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to c) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the remaining teams to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria e) to i) apply in the order given to the two or more teams still equal
e. superior goal difference in all group matches
f. higher number of goals scored in all group matches
g. lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points)
h. position in the overall European Qualifiers rankings, or if Germany, the host association team, is involved in the comparison, drawing of lots
If two teams which have the same number of points and the same number of goals scored and conceded play their last group match against each other and are still equal at the end of that match, their final rankings are determined by kicks from the penalty mark, provided that no other teams within the group have the same number of points on completion of all group matches. Should more than two teams have the same number of points, the criteria listed under Paragraph 20.01 apply.
The situation stipulated in article 20.02 of the competition regulations (penalty kicks in case of perfect equality) cannot apply to any of the groups.
How the four best third-placed teams are decided
With reference to article 21.03, the results of the third-placed teams are compared based on their three group stage matches, according to the following criteria:
a. higher number of points
b. superior goal difference
c. higher number of goals scored
d. higher number of wins
e. lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points)
f. position in the overall European Qualifiers rankings, or if Germany, the host association team, is involved in the comparison, drawing of lots
Once the four best third-placed teams were determined, article 21.05 of the regulations explains which third-placed team plays in which tie.