Euro 2024 predictions, including winners, losers, top goalscorers and scapegoats. Are you ready for it?

Mark White, Content Editor (@markwhlte): In 2021, I tweeted after the first game that Italy would win since they had the best coach (Ian Darke disagreed with me but that’s another story). Germany have the best coach, an in-form frontline of Havertz, Musiala and Wirtz, and a defence of Tah, Rudiger and Schlotterbeck. Seems legit, I’ll go with them.

Adam Clery, Head of Video (@AdamClery): England undoubtedly have the best individual stars in the entire tournament, France almost certainly have the best XI, Portugal have the strongest squad, and Germany not only have home advantage, but critically have the most German players as well. So I’m going to say none of those and opt for Spain. Many will say they’ve fallen off big time in recent years but there’s ability enough throughout the team to beat anyone on their day. Also Rodri loses something like 1 game in every 50 he plays, and they’d only need like, what, 7 here?

Can Spain summon the ghosts of 2008 and 2012?

Ryan Dabbs, Staff Writer (@ryandabbs_): If everything goes according to plan, then Portugal’s route to the final is the easiest of anyone. England and France could (should) play each other in the semis, while Portugal will face an underwhelming Germany side. Bruno Fernandes will bag the only goal in the final against France, earning him the Golden Boot and Player of the Tournament award in the process. Step aside, Cristiano.

Chris Flanagan, Senior Staff Writer (@CFlanaganFFT): France. If they can come within a whisker of winning the World Cup despite playing like a drain for a fair portion of the tournament, just imagine how they’ll do if they actually play well. They’ve got a strong squad, stability and, crucially, Mbappe. Can France’s new skipper emulate Zinedine Zidane, by captaining Les Bleus to a major international final in Berlin? Maybe. Can he then remember not to emulate Zidane, and reach the end of the final without headbutting someone? Only time will tell.

Ed McCambridge, Staff Writer (@edmccambridge): Germany fell backwards, as if shoved through a hedge, into their own World Cup in 2006 – in poor form and with a heavily criticised squad and coach. As soon as the competition started, they hit the switch. It turned into a legendary Sommermarchen (summer fairytale) that people still fondly recall today. It will be a similar story this summer, with an entire football-mad nation coming together to roar Toni Kroos & Co. all the way to the final… which they’ll lose to France.

Who will be the top scorer?

Ryan Dabbs: Bruno Fernandes, as explained above. Sure, he’s not on penalties or free-kicks (for now), but his long-range shooting and late arrivals in the box will be vital for Roberto Martinez’s side. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of braces against Georgia and Turkey or Czech Republic in the groups.

James Andrew: Kylian Mbappe. Not the most original answer but if France make it to the semi-finals then he should score the goals to get them there.

You didn’t say we had to be outlandish with our predictions…

Matthew Ketchell: It could be Cristiano you know. Obviously he’s on pens, and with a straightforward group he could be well on his way by the knockouts. Putting my eggs in a Portuguese basket, I’m backing CR7.

Adam Clery: Romelu Lukaku – he could very easily get 6 or 7 in the groups alone and then just go home, and wouldn’t that just be really funny?!

Could Lukaku lift the Golden Boot?

Chris Flanagan: Kylian Mbappe. True, Real Madrid’s new boy is yet to bag a single goal at the Euros, but he did score eight times at the last World Cup to win the Golden Boot, following the four he got in 2018, when he was still a teenager. This time, he should get at least 12.

Ed McCambridge: Big, burly Niklas Fullkrug. A classic ‘good feet for a tall man’ poacher, with an ability to head, poke and bicycle kick his way to at least five goals this summer.

Mark White: Ukraine’s very own Artem Dovbyk, with seven goals (two vs Romania, one vs Slovakia, one vs Belgium, another two against Switzerland in the last-16 and then one against France in the quarter-final). He will end this summer in hallowed company with Savo Milosevic and Milan Baros.

Who are the dark horses?

Mark White: Ukraine. Haven’t you heard? Artem Dovbyk is firing them to a semi-final.

Adam Clery: Scotland. Maybe not to win the thing, but to upset a much bigger nation and go on an era-defining run… provided they can keep every single one of their preferred XI fit. In competitive matches since the last Euros they have the 2nd highest win percentage after Portgual at around 71% (no, seriously), and have scalped a number of nations who’d have considered them a walkover.

Are Scotland challengers?

Matthew Ketchell: Poland are in the group of death, but I don’t think it looks that deadly, for reasons I explain in the next question. If they get out of it, they’ll do so with confidence but by my maths will hit Portugal in the quarter-finals. The football won’t be pretty, but with Wojciech Szczesny in goal and Robert Lewandowski leading the line, they have a chance.

Chris Flanagan: Ukraine. Back in 2006, Ukraine headed to Germany determined to make their nation proud, in their first major tournament after independence. They reached the quarter finals of the World Cup, still their most impressive performance at a tournament. In 2024, Ukraine head to Germany determined to make their nation proud, in their first tournament since the Russian invasion. Do not underestimate that motivation, or the players they have at their disposal – they nearly qualified ahead of Italy, and are in a favourable group.

Ed McCambridge: On a recent trip to Corfu, my phone service provider repeatedly sent me messages welcoming me to Albania. I thought nothing of it until I returned home to discover roaming charges from outside of the EU. They’d well and truly had my pants down and I suspect at least two of Spain, Italy and Croatia to head home feeling similarly mugged by the nation this June.

Albania could spring a shock this summer

 

James Andrew: Hungary. Only France, England, Belgium, Romania, Portugal and Hungary finished the qualifying unbeaten and will look to translate that form into the tournament. Forward Barnabas Vargas bagged 19 goals for Ferencvaros this season and has four goals in nine games at international level. Ryan Dabbs: I really fancy Austria. I don’t know what it is, especially when considering they’re in – what I consider to be – the strongest group, but a Ralf Rangnick redemptive arc could well be in order. Missing David Alaba might actually be a positive for the side; no longer will they shoehorn the Real Madrid defender into midfield, relying on his quality to pick passes and score. They’re far more balanced without him.

Which supposed dark horses will actually be rubbish?

Matthew Ketchell: Netherlands will flatter to deceive (why can they never get their manager right?) Excellent options across their back four, yes, but nothing else to seriously worry a knock-out stage opponent. Every decent team they’ve faced since Qatar have beaten them.Chris Flanagan: Scotland. I didn’t want to say this, and I really hope I’m wrong, but I worry for Scotland. They did so well in qualifying, but that was reliant on a ludicrous goalscoring streak from midfielder Scott McTominay, which doesn’t seem entirely sustainable, and they’ve struggled for victories over the past few months. Losing Aaron Hickey, Lyndon Dykes, Lewis Ferguson and Nathan Patterson ahead of the Euros really hasn’t helped. A few months ago, I’d have fancied them to reach the knockout stage. Now, I’m concerned. Playing hosts Germany in their first game isn’t ideal.Mark White: Every time, we hear how Poland have got Robert Lewandowski. Every time, Robert Lewandowski does virtually nothing. Poland out in the group, for me.

Will Poland let everyone down again? 

James Andrew: Belgium. Yes, they qualified unbeaten but the ‘golden generation’ is reaching the end of the road and the chance for the Belgians to lift some silverware may have passed.

Adam Clery: Quite possibly… also Scotland, but also, the reigning champions. Italy scraped through qualifying and always have impressive tournament form, but they have huge issues going in here. Bastoni is a rock at the back, but the bedrock of Chiellini and Bonucci that papered over the cracks for years is now long gone. Also while Retegui, Scamacca, and Zaccagni are no mugs, it’s not exactly Vieri, Totti, and Del Piero is it?

The Italian XI, featuring “Not exactly Vieri, Totti, and Del Piero”

Ryan Dabbs: Hungary? They’ll crash out in the group stages, managing just a draw against Scotland. I’m not particularly enamoured by their status as ‘dark horses’, simply because it all seems to centre around Dominik Szoboszlai performing well, whose form trailed off towards the end of the season anyway.

Ed McCambridge: “Lads, it’s England” should just about do the trick, half-time team-talk wise, for any gaffer that finds his players 1-0 down to the Three Lions in the knockouts.

How far will England get?

Matthew Ketchell: Nailed on for quarter-final heartache. The defence looks as weak as a Linton Travel Tavern tea bag, and with Southgate seemingly shaping his team up for front-foot attacking football (only taken eight years), I’m having nightmares about Eastern Europeans testing John Stones’ hamstrings. Brave from Gaz, but a recipe for disaster.

Adam Clery: Barring any wild slip-ups from other fancied nations, England likely have a very comfortable route to at least the quarter-finals. There they’ll likely face a Netherlands or a Spain who, theoretically at least, they’d be favourites against. After that… anyone’s guess, but a semi-final appearance should be the bare minimum.

Some think England will reach the semi-finals of Euro 2024…

Ryan Dabbs: Semi-finals. A 1-1 draw in their opening game against Serbia, with Aleksandar Mitrovic bullying the defence without Harry Maguire and scoring a bullet header in the second half. A nervy win in the second game against Denmark is then followed up by a comfortable, convincing victory against Slovenia to help the Three Lions top the group. The last 16 will prove relatively straightforward, while the quarters will allow Southgate revenge on Croatia. The same can’t be said for the semis, though, with France knocking England out of a tournament once more.

Ed McCambridge: The final, against Germany, in Berlin. It’ll go to penalties and my head will explode.

Chris Flanagan: Semi-finals. England have a 70 per cent win record when their games are on the BBC, and only a 27 per cent win record on ITV, so their tournament will go something like this: opening game against Serbia, live on the BBC, triumphant start! Second group game against Denmark, live on the BBC, another victory, it’s coming home! Last group game, Slovenia, live on ITV, 0-0, we’re really going to have to play better than this if we want to win the tournament. Second round, Austria, live on ITV, well we won 1-0, but we played pretty terribly, didn’t we? Quarter final, Italy, live on the BBC, 3-1, revenge for Euro 2020, still think it’s coming Rome, lads? No, it’s coming home! Semi final, France, live on ITV, 95 per cent possession, France run up the other end, Mbappe scores. That’s the end of that, then.

Mark White: Losing 3-1 to Germany in the final. Harry Kane penalty for England, before Jonathan Tah, Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz secure a home turf win for Die Mannchaft. It almost comes home, until of course, it doesn’t.

James Andrew: Winners! England did very well to reach the final of Euro 2020 (in 2021) and looked very good at the World Cup – there wasn’t much in the game they lost to France. Gareth Southgate then navigated the team through a tricky qualifying group unbeaten, securing wins home and away against the defending champions, Italy, to finish comfortably in top spot. More than the results, the games have allowed the likes of Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka and Phil Foden to grow into their England shirts and get used to playing together. Add the more experienced players like Harry Kane, John Stones and Jordan Pickford into the fold and you have a squad with a good blend, who have all been at the top of their game domestically this season. July 14 in Berlin will surely be Southgate’s crowning moment.

Who will England’s scapegoat be when everything inevitably goes wrong?

Ryan Dabbs: I hate to speculate, but unfortunately one of the young players competing in their first tournament will be singled out for unwarranted abuse…

James Andrew: Gareth Southgate: however well England have done under his management, there is an underlying feeling from some fans that he should have done more and taken more risks. So if England don’t win this time, then it could well be his fault again.

Southgate could be scapegoat once more

Chris Flanagan: Gareth Southgate. Yes, he took England to a World Cup semi final, and, yes, he took England to a European Championship final, but never forget that sOuThGaTe Is ToO dEfEnSiVe. Expect much hand-wringing about how he doesn’t get the best out of the country’s star players, how England will never win anything with him in charge, and remember that spell at Middlesbrough when he was rubbish? He lost 4-0 to Hungary, too! Result: Southgate quits, replaced by Sean Dyche, then England are immediately deducted 12 points from any competition, every competition, for breaking FFP.

Adam Clery: Whatever happens, it’s already Gareth Southgate. The toxicity around the manager for both legitimate (and entirely imagined) issues should likely have seen him replaced after the World Cup, but both the players and the FA recognised were smart enough to see that the positives still outweigh the negatives. Only winning the thing will change that narrative.

Mark White: Danny Makkelie. The Dutchman – who is a police inspector by day, referee by night (or also day, depending on kick-off time) – has a swagger to him that we don’t associate with our Premier League refs, all blacked-out Copa Mundials, sensible haircuts and Peter Kay’s ‘dad run’. Guarantee DanMak gives a dodgy red card or penalty against England.

Danny Makkelie has “pantomime villain” written all over him

Matthew Ketchell: Lewis Dunk seems to be unfairly in the firing line with his crime being selected ahead of Jarrad Branthwaite as a squad player. At 32 Dunk has stepped out of the international firing line and is now only a Marc Guehi mistake away from starting a major tournament. He played poorly in the March internationals and the memes are waiting to be tapped in on social media.

Ed McCambridge: Sam Matterface, Mark Pougatch and the rest of their ITV cronies for still broadcasting games despite the curse. Just let the BBC handle it, lads.

What will be the surprise of the tournament?

Matthew Ketchell: VAR being good. It was better at Qatar and my hope is that UEFA’s officials will show PGMOL how it’s done. Semi-automated offsides worked efficiently at the World Cup and will be used in Germany (this is where replays turn into virtual reality, rather than a person clumsily drawing a line on a pixelated still). It should cut delays by up to 30 seconds. The Premier League plans to introduce the system in September or October this year. Yippee!

James Andrew: Georgia’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will announce himself on the international stage. Kvaratskhelia played a key role in Napoli’s Scudetto triumph and despite the club struggling to match that last term, he still managed to score 11 goals. If debutants Georgia are to get out of their group with Turkey, Portugal and Czech Republic, then they will need him to be on form.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia might be this summer’s breakout star

Ryan Dabbs: Albania will escape from Group B, knocking Italy out in the process. A win against the holders in their opening match will set them up for a great tournament, with a draw coming against either Croatia or Spain to ensure they reach the knockouts as one of the best third-placed teams at a minimum. Albania will then take Belgium to penalties in the last 16, win, before getting knocked out by France in the quarters.

Mark White: It was only the slew of injuries in 2022 that stopped Didier Deschamps from picking his favourites. He had such amazing depth that it worked out for the best that Aurelien Tchouameni slotted in for Paul Pogba and that bad boy Karim Benzema was out of the picture for Kylian Mbappe to win the Golden Boot – but this time, I predict France will stink up the tournament. Upamecano and Konate have clangers in them, Ousmane Dembele is patchy and as PSG showed in the Champions League this season, Mbappe can only carry so much deadweight.

Is it time for France to capitulate once again?

Ed McCambridge: That bloke who puts flares up his bottom will pop one up the wrong way, leading to black armbands being worn in his memory from the last 16 on.

Chris Flanagan: Germany won’t be rubbish. If you’ve been following football over the past couple of years, you may have heard the news that this current Germany team is the worst to have ever played the game. I’m highly suspicious of this. They tried this ‘oh look, aren’t we terrible?’ act before hosting the 2006 World Cup, then turned into goal machines at the tournament, and could easily have won the thing. Look through their current squad, too, and there are some pretty decent players in there: Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Toni Kroos, Ilkay Gundogan, Antonio Rudiger, Joshua Kimmich, Manuel Neuer. Hell, even Kai Havertz finished the season really strongly. I won’t believe this Germany team are rubbish until they’re 9-0 down in their last group game against Switzerland.

Adam Clery: Injuries. Even though they shouldn’t be by this point. Come the final matches the top teams will likely be unrecognisable from the start of the tournament as the astonishing wave of bad hammies forces every manager to get inventive with their selections.